Looking Back: Print and 2020
Back in March of last year, no one knew what to expect. The regulations and rules regarding who could remain open and in what capacity were in flux. The fate of many industries and businesses across the U.S. was uncertain. Now, we have a little more ground beneath our feet. We can look back and take stock of what the print industry has undergone in the past eight months.
It started with a big question: Does print count as an essential service? To those in the print industry, the answer was obvious: YES. But, officially, the answer was up the air for a brief period. In early April, New York designated printing as an essential service.1 At this point, it was more of a clarification than a huge rule change, but it was an important marker nonetheless.
Similarly, in late March, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security put out an advisory list that identifies “critical infrastructure workers”. This list delineates what sorts of jobs should be regarded as necessary to secure for the sake of public health and economic and national security. The list includes print producing workers and those who support them as a group.
With print being declared an essential service, no time as wasted among printers to work out how to use this unique opportunity to serve the local and regional communities. Many printers started filling gaps in the supply of PPE in their area and around the country. Many printers stepped up in producing much needed COVID-specific resources for stores such as social distancing floor markers and protective barriers.
This pandemic has accelerated many already occurring shifts in the economy. And the print industry has not been an exception. This unique situation has created a very real sink or swim challenge for many companies. It has required printers to engage with their customer base in different ways, perform new roles, operate with new rules and regulations. This has been a straining time for many but also has opening up new doors, new revenue streams, and new mindsets on what it means to be a printer in the modern world.
The Road to Recovery
The roller-coaster ride that was 2020 certainly kept the print industry on its toes. While we were in it, it was almost impossible to predict when the print volume recovery was coming. Now, with a little time and distance from the worst of the worst, we can track the shape of the print industry’s ride through 2020 with more clarity.
Predictably, print shipments plunged in March as the entire world economy halted to a snail’s pace. The low point came in May. US printing shipments fell to under $6.5 billion for the month, a full $1 billion down from the same time the previous year. From there, however, things looked to be heading up. The steady rise in month over month print volume continued all the way until November.2
This ended up being a false recovery. November’s numbers saw another fall, which isn’t too out of the ordinary historically speaking, as business slows entering the holiday months. And the shipment numbers didn’t fall as low as August, but this did mark the end of this leg of industry-wide recovery.
With 2020 now past, we can see that while recovery won’t be rapid, it will happen. It’s unclear when print shipment numbers will return to consistently pre-COVID rates, but light is at the end of the tunnel. And, of course, the shape of this recovery will vary depending on the segment we’re talking about. Printers focused on events are in for the long haul, whereas printers with a significant portion of the profits in packaging and labels haven’t seen nearly as big of a hit.
Looking Forward
That’s looking back. Now, let’s look forward. According to a survey from WhatTheyThink3, based on responses from print business executives in October and November of 2020, the general consensus is that 2021 will see a rebound, but not a quick or complete one.
Overall, the respondents predict that there will be around a 10% increase in revenues in 2021 over 2020. If this comes true, it won’t overtake the roughly 12% drop in revenue that 2020 saw over 2019, but any amount of closing that gap is welcome.
Beyond the recovery in print sales we hope to see, 2021 will also see the further development of industry trends that were accelerated by the pandemic. These trends include: automation of both production processes and order flow, more precise data management, and shifting roles and work styles among print teams.
COVID forced printers to take the concept of reducing touchpoints to a whole new level. And the lessons learned from this trial by fire might very well end up changing the way printers work forever. The road to recovery will be a bumpy one, but with the right strategic legwork, many companies across this industry have the opportunity to invest in a stronger future.
1: https://pialliance.org/new-york-state-updates-executive-order-on-essential-business/
2: https://whattheythink.com/data/103935-november-printing-shipmentsit-was-nice-while-it-lasted/
3: https://whattheythink.com/articles/104518-printing-outlook-2021-executive-summary/
